How China sees the world — and plans to respond

Insights drawn directly from newly released internal-style guides written by China’s top policymakers.

Recently — about a week ago — People’s Publishing House released two official tutorial books to help readers study the key policy document outlining priorities for China’s next five-year blueprint: the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee.

The two publications are:

• Tutorial on the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (《〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉辅导读本》)

• Q&A Guidebook on the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (《党的二十届四中全会〈建议〉学习辅导百问》)

Readers familiar with China—especially many of you—may know that after major political events or the release of key guiding documents, China has in recent years published two supplementary reading books: one “tutorial” volume and one “Q&A” guidebook. For instance, after the Third Plenary Session last year adopted the reform master plan, two similar books were released. I wrote multiple newsletters at that time summarizing key themes from those books.

Why these two books matter

1. They collect essays written by China’s top policymakers.

Such compilation is rare. These essays offer a more direct window into policymakers’ strategic thinking in key areas. In line with past practice, these articles are also being published—one by one—in People’s Daily.

So far, signed articles by Li Qiang, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, who are members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, and Wang Yi, Liu Guozhong, Li Shulei, who are members of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, have already appeared in People’s Daily.

If the publication sequence continues to follow the order of the Tutorial volume, articles by 9 more senior officials will be released in the coming weeks. Reading the tutorial books now allows an early look at all the essays at once. The two books also include articles by other officials, along with extensive explanatory content.

2. Compared with the Recommendations document, the tutorial books offer more specifics and directional signals.

For example, regarding the “domestic circulation” part of China’s economic strategy, the Recommendations state:

“Strengthen the domestic circulation” 做强国内大循环 and “enhance the endogenous driving force and reliability of the domestic circulation” 增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性.

[Note: Domestic circulation is part of the new development paradigm of “dual circulation”, which was unveiled by the CPC Central Committee in 2020 to meet the challenge of mounting global uncertainties. Dual circulation takes the domestic market as the mainstay, with the domestic and international markets reinforcing each other.

Domestic circulation relies on a unified domestic market to optimize production, distribution, circulation, consumption and other aspects, with a view to stimulating domestic demand potential and enhancing economic resilience.]

But in his signed article in the Tutorial, Premier Li Qiang makes the priority explicit:

“十五五”时期要把发展立足点更多放在做强国内大循环上

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), we will place greater emphasis on strengthening the domestic circulation as the foundation of development.

Li explains the logic:

大国经济具有内需为主导、内部可循环的独特优势 ...... 以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性

A major economy has the unique advantage of demand-led growth and an internally sustainable circulation ...... The stability and long-term growth of the domestic circulation can hedge the uncertainties arising from the international circulation.

This does not mean the international circulation — trade and external engagement — becomes unimportant. Rather, it reflects policymakers’ strategic assessment of today’s geopolitical environment.

This is not Li’s first time expressing such a view. Li made similar remarks in May at a State Council meeting to promote domestic circulation. What is new here is that the Tutorial places this strategic shift explicitly within the time horizon of the next five-year plan.

Another example:

The Recommendations call for:

深化文明交流互鉴。

Deepening exchanges and mutual learning among civilizations.

They do not specify how. But in the Tutorial, in his signed article, Li Shulei, who is also the head of the Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee, writes:

支持社交媒体平台国际化发展

Support the international development of social media platforms

Clearly, this refers to Chinese social media platforms. Traditionally, platforms like Douyin (China’s version of TikTok), Xiaohongshu (RedNote), and Weibo (China’s version of “X”) served mainly domestic users. But the “TikTok Refugee” wave earlier this year brought many overseas users to RedNote. How China responds—open or restrict—has been debated.

Li’s wording signals a possible direction: supporting platforms like RedNote in developing more functions to serve international users, making “civilizations exchanges” concrete rather than abstract.

What I’m doing with the books

I have finished all articles in both books — nearly 700 pages in total. My plan is to produce two to three newsletter issues, each centered on a theme. If interest turns out low, I will keep it to one.

Today’s theme is “China’s assessment of the external environment,” covering topics such as major-country competition, military development, and the relationship between security and development.

Below are selected excerpts, with my interpretation. Please note that while most of the essays in these two books are signed articles written by senior officials, the 108 questions and answers in the Q&A Guidebook are not attributed to individual authors. They can be viewed as the collective intelligence of the compilation team — essentially the group with the deepest involvement in, and the most comprehensive understanding of, the formulation of China’s five-year plans.

Table of contents of Tutorial on the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development

Table of contents of Q&A Guidebook on the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development

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少数西方国家对多极化进程的快速发展明显不适，仍妄图维持单级霸权，但遭到国际社会的广泛抵制。

Some Western countries are uncomfortable with the rapid advance of multipolarity and still attempt to maintain unipolar hegemony, but such actions face widespread resistance from the international community.

......

经济全球化虽遭遇逆流但仍是不可阻挡的历史潮流。

Economic globalization is encountering headwinds, yet it remains an unstoppable trend.

......

战略安全威胁增多，拥核国家互信减弱，有可能陷入新一轮军备竞赛。

Strategic security risks are increasing, mutual trust among nuclear-armed countries is weakening, and a new round of arms race is possible.

......

周边涉我安全环境复杂因素增多。

More complex factors are involved in China’s surrounding security environment.

......

(Source: Tutorial on the Recommendations…, pp. 175–177; Article: Profound and Complex Changes in China’s Development Environment During the “15th Five-Year Plan” Period, By Tian Peiyan, deputy head of the Policy Research Office of the CPC Central Committee.)

The first sentence does not name any country, but the phrase “unipolar hegemony” could be interpreted as indirectly referring to the United States.

The second sentence shows that China’s policymakers continue to believe that economic globalization will persist in the long run. This suggests that China intends to remain integrated into the global economy as much as possible — while ensuring security.

The third sentence feels particularly timely, as it appears in the book before President Trump ordered the U.S. military to immediately restart the process for testing nuclear weapons on Oct. 30 after a halt of 33 years.

The fourth sentence immediately reminded me of the Central Conference on Work Related to Neighboring Countries, which China convened again in April this year after a 12-year gap — a meeting I analyzed at the time. One of the conclusions from that conference was that “China’s relations with its neighboring countries are currently at their best in modern times.” When read together with this sentence, it raises the possibility that the “complex factors” mentioned here may be referring to actors outside China’s immediate neighborhood.

进入机遇和挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期，唯有保持昂扬的斗志、顽强的意志，锻造敢斗善斗的过硬本领，才能在风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪重大考研中赢得主动，立于不败之地。

As China enters a period where opportunities and challenges coexist and where uncertainties and unpredictable factors are on the rise, only by maintaining high morale and strong willpower, and by forging the capability to face difficulties head-on and prevail in struggles, can we seize the initiative amid turbulent waves and remain invincible.

面对外部围堵遏制打压，要保持不畏强暴、反抗强权的风骨，核心利益不让步，原则问题不妥协，威胁讹诈不退缩。

In the face of external containment, suppression and coercion, we must stand firm — never yielding to power politics or intimidation. On matters involving core interests, we will not concede; on matters of principle, we will not compromise; and under threats or blackmail, we will not back down.

(Source: Tutorial on the Recommendations…, p. 182; Article: Profound and Complex Changes in China’s Development Environment During the “15th Five-Year Plan” Period, By Tian Peiyan, deputy head of the Policy Research Office of the CPC Central Committee.)

These two sentences make it clear that if China faces threats or challenges in trade or other areas, its strategy will remain unchanged: it will not back down, but will continue to “fight” until the end.

别国越是搞“小院高墙”、“脱钩断链”，我们越要坚持高水平对外开放不动摇。“十五五”时期，进一步扩大高水平对外开放，需要稳步扩大制度型开放，维护多边贸易体制，拓展国际循环。

The more others build ‘small yards with high fences’ or push for decoupling, the more firmly we will promote high-level opening up. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we will steadily expand institutional opening up, uphold the multilateral trading system, and broaden the international circulation.

(Source: Q&A Guidebook on the Recommendations…, p. 15, Article: Deepening Reform of the Economic System and Promoting High-quality Development, By Wang Huning, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and chairman of the CPPCC National Committee)

This sentence shows that China continues to value openness as a strategic choice, and that the “international circulation” component of the “dual circulation” strategy remains important. In fact, the idea of “the more others close up, the more we should open up” has frequently appeared in China’s academic discussions over the past two years. For example, prominent scholar Zheng Yongnian has repeatedly called for further opening-up — including unilateral opening: “Even if some Western countries do not open to us, we have to open to them. “

In practice, China is acting on the idea of further opening up its economy. According to a post on the Ministry of Commerce’s WeChat blog, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao on Tuesday signed the framework agreement to upgrade economic partnership with representatives from five Pacific Island countries — the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of Kiribati, the Republic of Nauru, the Republic of Vanuatu and the Republic of Fiji.

On the same day, Wang also signed an arrangement on the early outcomes on shared development of an economic partnership between the governments of China and Congo, an important step in implementing the zero-tariff policy announced by Chinese top leader. It is also a concrete action to advance the spirit of the Third and Fourth Plenary Sessions of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and to expand China’s self-initiated opening-up, according to a statement from the website of Ministry of Commerce.

必须着眼国际军事竞争战略制高点前瞻先机。不仅要赶上潮流、赶上时代，还要力争走在时代前列。

We must focus on the strategic high ground of international military competition. We should not only keep pace with the times, but strive to lead.

......

要坚持自主可控，扭住高水平科技自立自强，大力推进自主创新、原始创新，解决好关键技术“卡脖子”问题。

We must uphold self-reliance and maintain control in key areas, pursue high-level scientific and technological self-sufficiency, vigorously advance independent innovation and original innovation, and resolve bottlenecks in critical technologies.

......

实施国防发展重大工程，加紧国防科技创新和先进技术转化，研制建造更多制强制胜的“杀手锏”武器装备。

We will advance major defense development projects, accelerate innovation and application of defense technologies, and develop more “trump card” equipment capable of gaining decisive advantage.

(Source: Q&A Guidebook on the Recommendations…, pp. 87–89, Article: Promoting the Modernization of National Defense and the Armed Forces, By Zhang Youxia, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission)

There are quite a few articles in the tutorial books related to China’s military development, but since I am not a military expert, I won’t comment on them in detail here. What stands out is China’s recognition that foreign technology restrictions make self-reliance in defense science and technology a necessity.

回顾新中国成立以来的历史，在“站起来”阶段，我们党更加注重安全；在“富起来”阶段，我们党更加注重发展；在“强起来”的新阶段，要统筹好发展和安全。要进一步树立发展是硬道理、安全也是硬道理的理念，在发展中固安全，在安全中谋发展，有效防范化解各类风险。

Looking back at the history since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the Party placed greater emphasis on security during the stage of “standing up,” and greater emphasis on development during the stage of “becoming prosperous.” In the new stage of “becoming strong,” development and security must be better coordinated. We must further establish the notion that development is the absolute principle and security is also the absolute principle — strengthening security through development and pursuing development in a secure environment, while effectively preventing and defusing various risks.

.....

要完善涉外国际安全机制，构建海外安全保障体系，加强发制裁、反干预、反“长臂管辖”斗争，深化国际执法安全合作。

We must improve mechanisms for safeguarding international security in foreign-related affairs, build a comprehensive system for protecting China’s overseas security interests, strengthen efforts to counter sanctions, interference and long-arm jurisdiction, and deepen international law-enforcement and security cooperation.

(Source: Q&A Guidebook on the Recommendations…, pp. 107–108, Article: Building a Higher Level of Peace and Security in China, By Chen Wenqing, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and head of the Commission for Political and Legal Affairs of the CPC Central Committee)

The “standing up” stage probably refers to the period from the founding of the People’s Republic of China to the beginning of reform and opening-up. The “becoming prosperous” stage probably refers to the period after reform and opening-up began. The “becoming strong” stage likely refers to the period from 2012 to the present.

The reform master plan released last year included a dedicated section on “strengthening the rule of law in foreign-related affairs.” The second sentence above aligns closely with that direction.

国际力量对比深刻调整，世界多极化在曲折中发展，我国国际影响力、感召力、塑造力不断提升，在国际事务中已经并将继续发挥重要作用。

With major changes in the balance of international forces, multipolarity is advancing amid twists and turns. China’s international influence, appeal and capacity to shape the world continue to grow. China has played, and will continue to play, an important role in global affairs.

(Source: Q&A Guidebook on the Recommendations…, p. 7, Q&A No. 3: How to Understand the International and Domestic Situation During the 15th Five-Year Plan period)

This sentence can be seen as a summary assessment by policymakers of China’s international influence.

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