What does history say about the Dalai Lama’s next life?
This week, as the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday, the long-standing controversy over his succession has once again come to a head.
Over the past three days, Xinhua News Agency has published four articles exploring key issues at the heart of the debate, including the necessity of central government approval, the role of the lot-drawing ceremony, the significance of traditional religious rituals, and whether reincarnated individuals themselves have the authority to decide matters of reincarnation.
The first article focuses on arguing the necessity of central government approval in the reincarnation of Grand Living Buddhas.
In the Tibetan Buddhist reincarnation system, the three fundamental principles of "search within the Chinese territory, drawing lots from the golden urn, and approval from the central government" form a comprehensive and rigorous framework for succession. This system serves as a vital safeguard for national unity, ethnic solidarity, and the proper order of Tibetan Buddhism. Among these principles, "approval by the central government" is the system's ultimate and most essential step. Far from being a mere administrative formality, it carries profound historical logic, legal foundation, and practical significance. This principle is essential for ensuring an orderly reincarnation process, as well as for maintaining social stability and enduring peace.
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In 1793, the Qing government promulgated the "Imperially Approved Ordinance for Better Governance of Tibet (29-Article Ordinance)," with its first article explicitly stipulating that the reincarnation of Living Buddhas had to follow the procedure of "drawing lots from the golden urn," and affirming the central government's approval authority over the reincarnation. In 1936, the government of the Republic of China issued the "Regulations on Lama Reincarnation," mandating that the reincarnation of grand Living Buddhas must be reported to the central government before proceeding with historical conventions, traditional religious ritual search, the lot-drawing ceremony, and the final approval by the central government.
Following the founding of the People's Republic of China, the reincarnation of Tibetan Buddhism Living Buddhas has been managed by governments at various levels in accordance with the law. In 1959, the democratic reform abolished the feudal serfdom under theocracy in Xizang, liberating the reincarnation institution and ushering in a new era. Since 1949, the state has successfully overseen the reincarnations of several prominent Living Buddhas, including the 16th Living Buddha Karmapa, the 10th Panchen Erdeni, and the sixth Regent Reting Rinpoche. By 2024, 93 newly reincarnated Living Buddhas had been confirmed upon government approval.
It traces the historical context, outlining how both the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China exercised approval authority over such reincarnations. The article emphasizes that central government approval is a vital manifestation of national sovereignty, a prerequisite for safeguarding national unity and social stability, and a legal declaration of a modern state's governance over religious affairs.
The second article lays out a detailed historical and political argument for the legitimacy and necessity of the golden urn lot-drawing ceremony in the selection of reincarnated Living Buddhas in Tibetan Buddhism — particularly that of the Dalai Lama.
From the perspective of internal development, it became increasingly evident that members of the Tibetan aristocracy in the Qing Dynasty wantonly interfered with the selection and identification of reincarnations, in an attempt to expand their influence. When identifying reincarnations, the behavior of Chos Skyongs, or Dharma protectors who were responsible for practicing divination by drawing divining sticks or tossing coins, were left unchecked. Bribed by ecclesiastical and secular forces, they arbitrarily specified reincarnations -- therefore most of the selected boys came from aristocratic families, seriously undermining the sanctity and fairness of the reincarnation system. For instance, when searching for the Eighth Dalai Lama's reincarnation, although the Qing Dynasty government sent the third Zhangjia Living Buddha to Xizang to preside over related matters, the finally selected boy was related to the sixth Panchen; the younger brother and nephew of the third Zhangjia Living Buddha were respectively identified as the Nagya and Rakho Living Buddhas; the elder and younger brothers of the sixth Panchen became the Dhunpa Hutuktu of Tashilhumpo Monastery and the 10th Living Buddha of the red hat system of Karma Kagyu Sect respectively; one niece of the sixth Panchen was the Samding Dorje Phagmo Living Buddha. All these examples demonstrate manipulation by family forces on reincarnations. In response, Emperor Qianlong lamented in his article on Lamas that the reincarnations of grand Lamas seemed to have come from one family, which is almost the same as a hereditary title.
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In the face of various drawbacks, the Qing Dynasty government followed the trend of historical development and formulated the golden urn lot-drawing system. After the end of the Gorkha War, the Qing government issued the Imperially Approved Ordinance for Better Governance of Tibet (29-Article Ordinance) (hereinafter referred to as the "Ordinance") in 1793, the first of which stipulated the establishment of the lot-drawing system. This system has henceforth been written into the Qing Dynasty's regulation for the department of foreign-related affairs and established at the legal level. According to the regulation, when searching for the reincarnations of grand Living Buddhas, the names and birthdates of the candidates need to be written on signboards in Manchu, Han and Tibetan languages, and placed in a specially made golden urn. The Qing Dynasty government's high commissioner in Xizang and the grand Living Buddhas would officially draw the lot to identify the signs in front of the statue of Sakyamuni Buddha in Jokhang Temple, and report to the central government for approval after selection.
Tracing the system’s origins to the Qing Dynasty’s 1793 ordinance, the article argues that the lot-drawing ritual was introduced to combat aristocratic manipulation and preserve the sanctity of reincarnation procedures.
The third article emphasizes that the identification of a reincarnated Dalai Lama must strictly follow time-honored Tibetan Buddhist rituals, including divination, visions from sacred sites like Lhamo Latso Lake, behavioral tests, and most importantly, the lot-drawing ceremony using the golden urn, followed by final approval from the central government.
After the passing of the 13th Dalai Lama, the local regional government, in accordance with traditional religious rituals and historical conventions, carried out the search, identification, and enthronement of the 14th Dalai Lama. Based on signs such as the 13th Dalai Lama facing northeast at the time of his death, and following traditional religious rituals including consulting oracles from Dharma protectors and observing the holy lake to find signs about the reincarnation's location, a search team located the reincarnation candidate, Lhamo Thondup (later known as the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso), in Huangzhong County, Qinghai Province.
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The search and identification of the reincarnation of a late Dalai Lama is the most complex and closely watched process within the reincarnation system of Living Buddhas in Tibetan Buddhism. It is not a simple search but one that strictly adheres to a system of traditional religious rituals, combining mystical revelation (such as observing the holy lake, divination, and insights from senior monks), rigorous verification (including recognition of relics and behavioral tests), and historical conventions (such as search within the Chinese territory, drawing lots from the golden urn, and approval from the central government). This system is deeply rooted in the core beliefs of Tibetan Buddhism, reflecting its sanctity, historical continuity, and standardization, and is a vital part of Tibetan Buddhism's unique religious culture.
It presents this system as a deeply rooted religious tradition that combines mystical insight, historical continuity, and institutional authority. It argues that the golden urn ceremony, established in the Qing Dynasty, reflects both the spiritual sanctity of the reincarnation process and the sovereignty of the Chinese state. Citing the example of the 14th Dalai Lama’s recognition in 1940—approved and overseen by the Nationalist Government—it concludes that only reincarnations carried out within China, and in line with these prescribed religious and historical practices, can be considered legitimate in the eyes of Tibetan Buddhist.
In the fourth article, Li Decheng of the China Tibetology Research Center challenges the claim that reincarnated individuals—such as the Dalai Lama—can independently decide the course of their reincarnation. Drawing on centuries of historical records and religious conventions, the article argues that the reincarnation of Living Buddhas in Tibetan Buddhism has always been a process governed by collective religious rituals, approval from local and central authorities, and legal oversight. From the 16th century onward, successive Dalai Lamas were identified and confirmed through procedures such as signs, religious consultations, and—beginning in the Qing Dynasty—the golden urn lot-drawing system, all under the supervision of secular governments.
Recently, the Dalai clique and international anti-China forces have colluded to clamor about the reincarnation of Tibetan Buddhist Living Buddhas, claiming that it is an internal religious affair to be decided by the reincarnated individuals themselves. Historical facts demonstrate that the reincarnation of Tibetan Buddhist Living Buddhas, including the search for and confirmation of successive Dalai Lamas, has never followed such a precedent. The reincarnation of Living Buddhas is by no means merely an internal religious matter, nor is it solely the "unique predestined bond" claimed by the 14th Dalai Lama. Instead, it reflects national sovereignty, governmental authority, religious principles, and the sentiments of lay followers.
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Since the establishment of the reincarnation system of Living Buddhas, it has consistently adhered to and respected principles and traditions of government oversight, management according to law, confirmation through doctrinal determination, and respect for the sentiments of the faithful. There is simply no basis for the reincarnated individual alone to decide the matter, and any attempt to politicize the reincarnation of Living Buddhas will ultimately prove futile.
The article outlines four foundational principles for the reincarnation system: government oversight as an expression of national sovereignty; legal regulation in line with rule-of-law norms; doctrinal determination rooted in religious rituals like the golden urn ceremony; and respect for the sentiments of lay believers, who are overwhelmingly located in China. It stresses that no historical precedent supports the idea of self-determined reincarnation. Instead, the process is portrayed as both a religious and state-regulated matter—one intended to prevent manipulation and preserve the integrity of Tibetan Buddhism within China’s legal and political framework.